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We have met the enemy and he is, er, forecasting

There is no doubt we are terribly bad at forecasting. Even the smartest among us are. Even the best and the brightest, whom we have tasked to save the world from financial annihilation, are.  Take Ben...

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The Fragility of the Future (and Your Strategy)

Today I was reminded of the perils of forecasting while reviewing  a Department of Defense document, the Joint Operating Environment 2010. “JOE 2010″ as it’s called, is designed to provide the various...

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Welcome to Extremistan! Why some things cannot be predicted and what that...

In an earlier post about forecasting, I mentioned the work by Nassim Taleb on the concept of black swan. In his remarkable book, “The Black Swan”, Taleb describes at length the characteristics of...

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Managing the unexpected – On the work of Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe

Karl Weick has long been known for his work on organization theory.  In particular, his work focuses on how organizations make sense of complex and uncertain environments.  Among Weick’s most famous...

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Culture of risk vs. culture of uncertainty: a crucial management issue

Recently I had a discussion with a friend who is a colonel in the Army about the culture of risk among senior officers and, by extension, in management.  The culture of risk is an important question...

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Constructing Cassandra Now Available

Our new book on strategic surprise, Constructing Cassandra:  Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001, is now available for pre-order worldwide. Interested readers in North America can read...

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Risk, Uncertainty and Black Swans: Theoretical Differences and Practical...

Every time Milo and I teach about how organizations can make sense of their environments, we are confronted with the difficulty of explaining why uncertainty is so different from risk and why...

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Geopolitics, Investing, and the Little Book of Psychic Cold Reading

Milo’s latest advice for investors and business people trying to come to grips with geopolitics is now available on Forbes.com.  It’s called “Geopolitics, Investing and the Little Book of Psychic Cold...

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